Consensus is in that the bull run has officially returned. From local bottoms in the low US$3,000s, Bitcoin has boomed almost four times to its current position of $11,400. For many, this has been a phenomenal first half of the year. But not for all, many altcoin holders still anxiously wait for their big bull run.
January 2018, at the height of the last bull run, Bitcoin’s dominance had fallen to record lows of 33%. Although it had fallen throughout the rest of the year, Bitcoin’s dominance rose on, as BTC dumps were outpaced by the respective altcoin market.
And while altcoins dumped harder, they haven’t pumped more alongside Bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance is now at local highs above 60%. For every $100 in the entire cryptocurrency market, over $60 are tied up in Bitcoin. Alas, many traders and speculators are throwing increasing amounts of capital into altcoins. Until now, these moves have by-and-large failed to pay off.
Bitcoin’s dominance has hit 60% just once before since January ’18. In the second week of May, after Bitcoin pumped hard on Blockchain Week hopium and massive announcements, altcoins responded with a minor rally of their own. Dominance fell briefly to 57% before climbing again.
Today marks the first day Bitcoin has broken through the 60% benchmark. This position has garnered reaction from several major altcoins. VeChain (VET) is up a massive 36% on the day. Chainlink (LINK) has garnered an impressive 30% in the pat 24 hours. Energi (NRG) and HyperCash (HC) are up even more: at +56% and +42%, respectively.
Unfortunately, this growth hasn’t been mirrored by altcoins across the board. Of the top 100 coins on CoinMarketCap, only 25 are up versus Bitcoin. However, these daily pumps are larger and broader than has been previously seen in 2019. And with Bitcoin at the noteworthy 60% dominance mark, the tides seem to finally be turning.
We’re certainly not at the explosive levels of December 2017-February 2018, but sentiments are shifting in a similar direction. As VeChain and Chainlink represent two of the largest altcoin communities, their boom alongside one another suggests that money may be flowing back towards popular altcoins.
Perhaps the most exciting prospect of these market movements is the striking resemblance between May-June 2019 and November-December 2017. In November, Bitcoin’s dominance fell to 55-57% after a sharp rise to 60%. It shot up again in December, to a momentary 62%, before dropping, hard, to 33% lows just one month later. When Bitcoin hit local dominance highs on November 5, 2017 and May 14, 2019, it was trading in the low US$7,000s.
The fireworks from VeChain, Chainlink, and others might just be the indicators for alt season 2019. Last time, altcoins saw an average two times increase versus Bitcoin. Along the same time frame, Bitcoin almost tripled in value, meaning an average of six times gains versus USD between November ’12 and January ’18.
Of course, the shift in regulatory nature and further maturity of the space suggests that any potential “alt season” will likely look somewhat more organic and sustained. Either way, July might shape up to be the first “crazy” month of trading in the past 18 months.
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